New Influenza - Current Status
fourteen days I have several hours a day, approaching the pandemic and would like to share some feelings at the moment.
try to contribute elements that help us to this day, and maybe for the next years, since the influenza virus will continue to change and information about the damage that occurs also continue to change every day, every hour and every minute .
What we can see so far?
- The low mortality and low lethality of the virus.
mortality defined as deaths for the affected population. Has caused some 22 deaths in Mexico and one death out of the country most affected.
also its lethality (deaths on the number of patients) is very low, although it is clear that if the spread of evil increases, however, many deaths were recorded as the number of patients is very large in all planet.
But although surprised, the best thing that could happen to mankind, is that the behavior of this epidemic to continue in this way, with these indices. While a single death, and we mean a real tragedy.
The least desired is that the virus could mutate into dispersion to Asia or to the southern hemisphere, now entering its usual seasonal flu.
So far, unlike other flu viruses, frequent diarrhea boxes appear. And mortality has affected more women and young people (those who died from complications of influenza are usually elderly and children).
- The performance of the company's flu
An important factor of concern to all, is the behavior of every local or global community. So much for the Mexican company has behaved in an admirable fashion, with civic responsibility very rare to see in the world today.
Moreover, global society have been quite reasonable, although there have been some signs of panic, of segregation, some irresponsible management of information and loss of common sense by the authorities.
Experts say the best course of action is rational action.
Rational management of the outbreak, defines life and death of thousands of people around the world.
- The virus does not possess the genetic basis of past pandemics.
The current form virus, no genetic markers that characterized those other major global epidemics.
not carry a mutation in a gene made the virus more lethal of the three influenza pandemics of the twentieth century.
Nor has the variant hemagglutinin (H5N1) avian influenza in 2005, which had a fatality record: 61% (257 deaths of 421 patients).
- Influenza is a disease that most deaths occurred in the history of mankind.
the infectious agent is more unpredictability with which science has faced.
- The economic factor.
Some argue that global GDP could fall by up to 10% in the next pandemic, and create an enormous social impact, especially in the most disadvantaged. While the closure of airports and borders deepen the economic crisis.
- WHO says international travel limit would have little effect to stop the spread of the disease.
say it would be detrimental to the global community since the H1N1 virus has been confirmed in many parts of the world, and no longer makes sense to try to stop its spread, but quickly identify and minimize their impact on medication and isolation each patient.
One of difficulties arise, is one of the main raw materials of medicine to combat it, is produced in China and should be sent to other countries across borders now closed.
- Medication insufficient.
Another possible problem is this virus is harmless but that countries spend Tamiflu this outbreak and run out of medicines in stock, for when this or any other real pandemic.
Scientists are still afraid of other permanent danger, the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus of 2005, as it follows the possibility that latent reactive ability damage.
The antiviral medication abuse can lead to resistant strains, and for the moment, there are other drugs that respond to this epidemic.
- Until today, can be consumed pork products.
consumption of pork products is not harmful, or increase the risk of infection. Eating pork is completely safe, the virus is killed at temperatures above 70 degrees. Anyway, Canada checks a group of pigs that appear to have been infected by a human with H1N1.
- The source of infection is unknown.
have talked about the "patient zero" of Mexico as a country where we get the wrong pig as the vessel or the natural laboratory where they mixed the strains that make up the virus. However, today no one knows where the epidemic started, there is even talk that may have begun in California, not Mexico. Nor have the "herd zero of the disease.
- Vaccines are sold each year for seasonal influenza are not worth preventing this infection.
- The flu virus can stay alive on a flat surface for 48 hours.
For this reason, it is advisable to wear gloves and masks or respirators, when you are near an infected person.
- Inequality
deaths occurred in the most disadvantaged: limited medical care, previous diseases, malnutrition, abandonment. With few exceptions
fatal victims are always the poorest.
- There are countries better prepared than others to confront the pandemic.
The UK is one of the countries best prepared to confront the pandemic and have to get enough antiviral to treat 33 million people, 54% of the population.
France has reserves for a similar percentage of the population. Spain has a provision 10 million antiviral.
Japan, with storage of drugs sufficient to treat 24% of the population,
Reservations for treatments of Tamiflu in Brazil, are nine million in a nation with more than 190 million people. Almost 5%
La Argentina for 2% of the total population.
is also true that the number of reserves is not necessarily equivalent to the level of preparedness, India, for example, could have sufficient financial capacity to address the pandemic, but lacks the infrastructure to accommodate millions of people .
In Nicaragua 60% of the population not have access to clean water and many families live crammed into a clear example of how devastating the virus might reach poor areas. The government has admitted that only 3,000 people are treated.
- Argentina will not be distracted.
In recent years more than a million Argentines fell ill with the flu.
Moreover, each year in our country, the influenza virus causes about 3,000 deaths.
On the other hand, do not forget the 16,000 dengue patients and not to forget the death of five patients.
Chagas disease takes daily Argentine eleven life.
- The prevention of Mexico and the World Health Organization were not exaggerated.
With these measures Mexico had the merit of reducing deaths less than a week, compared with a virus very difficult to control, which came in a few days to more than twenty countries.
the public's response to suggestions that the authorities were appealing to the responsibility and conscience, was excellent. The proof is that it saved lives and prevented much suffering.
Criticism of the handling of the crisis can be compared con aquellos que discuten la recomendación de usar cinturón de seguridad aduciendo que la posibilidad de tener un accidente es muy remota.
Si se produce un accidente, con el cinturón me preparo, me protejo.
Si hay gripe, con las medidas de prevención me preparo, me protejo.
- Lo que viene, el invierno
Los países del hemisferio sur que no han sufrido hasta ahora la gripe, pudieran comenzar a padecer brotes con la llegada del invierno, que trae con él un elevado riesgo de que el virus se propague y mute.
Por otra parte, los picos más altos de actividad de la influenza ocurren en el winter.
What worries experts most is that the nations in the southern hemisphere may suffer the double attack of swine flu and human flu, and that poor countries with weak public health systems could be complicated.
think there is the additional risk of a virus that could essentially cause two outbreaks at the same time.
But the biggest risk to South American nations are vulnerable populations of poor people in various parts of the continent, inhabiting slums with little access to health care.
flu spreads more easily in the winter because people tend to congregate indoors to escape the cold, which increases the possibility of infection from person to person,
- Finally, the two most important measures will for a long time to wash your hands and community participation.
Not much to say about the act of washing hands.
But for community participation, it is clear that the new virus can be defeated by an organized and united community.
is impossible fragments, only a minister, a group of specialists, an NGO, a local or national government, an advanced laboratory or a university ateneo by themselves, to defeat this pandemic.
needed to join, together, together. In fact
individual and simple hands and the ability of a society of work "in network" are the two tools that our society needs to prevent the next death, not to regret the next tragedy.
John Carr
Community Development Centre (Veterinary UBA)
Red Solidaria
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